By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist
Key takeaways:
- Active inventory for single-family homes is at 5 to 6 months’ supply in the Tri-County area, reflecting a healthy balance of demand and supply.
- Sellers are more willing to offer discounts, typically at 5% to 6%, in the Tri-County area.
- Despite the buildup in supply, conditions remain competitive, so prices are likely to continue rising at a broad level.
Access the January 2025 Southeast Florida Housing Report HERE.
The spring market appears poised to favor buyers with more active listings on the market and with new listings outpacing pending sales in January. The buildup in inventory and longer days on the market give buyers more power to negotiate the price. However, do not expect prices to fall as conditions remain competitive with demand and supply at a healthy balance. ‘
Southeast Florida’s active inventory is now reflective of balanced market, with active inventory of single-family homes hovering at 5 months’ supply in Broward and Martin and at 6 months’ supply in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie. Expect more buildup in inventory as new listings outpace pending sales.
Supply will continue to build up with new listings outpacing pending sales in January in Miami-Dade (+9.3% vs. -11.4% ), Broward (15.5% vs 0.6%), Palm Beach (6.8% vs. -4.5%), Martin (28% vs. 4.1%), and St. Lucie (13.2% vs. -8.0%).
While supply is less tight compared to one year ago (and during the frenzied market in 2020-2021), conditions are still competitive, particularly for homes listed at $400,000 and below. In this market segment, inventory is equivalent to just 2 to 3 months’ supply across most counties.
There is more supply available on the million-dollar market, with active inventory now at 9 to 10 months’ supply in most counties. However, a 12 to 24 months’ supply is not unusual in the million-dollar market, so the current months’ supply does not indicate there is a glut that can cause prices to fall significantly.
With more supply and longer days on the market, the median percent sales price to original list price declined from one year ago in Miami-Dade (94% vs 96%), Broward (95% vs. 96%), Martin (94% vs 95%) and St. Lucie (96% vs 97%). In Palm Beach, the sales to list price discount was even ( 94% vs 94%). Price discounts are higher in the million-dollar market at about 8% to 9% in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach.
While sellers are willing to offer more discounts, prices are still rising at a broad level given the healthy balance of demand and supply. In January, the median sales prices rose on a year-over-year basis with the strongest gain in Broward County (+11.3%), followed by Martin (8.6%), Miami-Dade (7.1%), and Palm Beach (5.7%). However, the median sales price fell in St. Lucie (-1.6%) but the price drop appeared to have moved transactions through closing, with sales up at the strongest pace of 9.5%.
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