By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist
Miami-Dade County continues to rank No. 1 in the U.S. in multifamily units under construction with developers continuing to remain bullish given the area’s strong job growth and sustained migration.
According to Cushman and Wakefield’s[1] multifamily report for 2024 Q3, there were about 25,000 units in 50 unit+ buildings were under construction. At the current level of absorption over the past four quarters through 2024 Q3, this adds 19% to the current inventory and is equivalent to three years of the current annual pace of net absorption. Fort Lauderdale has another nearly 10,000 units under construction, equivalent to two years of the current pace of annual absorption. Palm Beach County has about 2,000 units under construction, adding 3% to the current inventory and equivalent to about one year of the current pace of annual absorption. Altogether, these three counties have 37,000 units under construction as of 2024 Q3.
According to MIAMI’s analysis of US Census Bureau’s housing units authorized in 5-unit or more buildings, another 12,200 units are likely to be authorized in 2024 (annualized level based on units authorized through August 2024): 9,000 in Miami-Dade; 1,700 in Broward; and 1,500 in Palm Beach. To note, the number of units permitted in 2024 has slowed compared to 2023 of 15,363 units and the peak level in 2021 of 16,549 units. Construction slowed amid rising mortgage rates and as developers likely took into account current levels of construction when underwriting a project.
Miami-Dade County multifamily rent conditions outperform Florida markets and nationally
Despite intense construction activity, Miami-Dade’s multifamily vacancy rate in buildings with 50 or more units has held below the national rate, at 6.7% in 2024 Q3 compared to 8.7% nationally. Meanwhile, vacancy rates have moved north of 10% in Palm Beach County (10.8%), the Orlando metro (10.4%), Tampa metro (10.4%), and Jacksonville (13.9%).
Given the low vacancy rate in Miami-Dade County, the median asking rent rose at a stronger annual rate of 4% in 2024 Q3, outpacing the national increase of 2%. Multifamily asking rents rose at a slower pace in Palm Beach County (1.7%), Broward (1.8%), Orlando (0%), and Tampa (0%), and Jacksonville (-0.6%).
Sustained migration and job growth are bolstering Miami-Dade County’s strong multifamily market
Strong job growth and sustained migration are bolstering Miami-Dade County’s rental market. According to MIAMI’s recent analysis of driver license exchanges as of 2024 Q3, only out-of-state driver license exchanges increased 2% in the country during the first three quarters of the year compared to one year ago, with 16,474 out-of-state driver license exchange. While Miami-Dade County continued to see an increase in out-of-state driver license exchanges, other counties saw a decline in 2024 Q1-Q3 compared to one year ago: Broward County (14,759; -13%), Palm Beach County (17,829; -10%), Martin County (2,010; -9%), and St. Lucie (5,072; -11%).
Miami-Dade County’s job growth is outperforming the nation’s and major Florida metro areas, based on the US Census Bureau’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages in 2024 Q1: Miami-Dade (+ 2.5%), Broward (1.4%), Palm Beach (1.7%), Martin (2.0%), St. Lucie (1.9%), Orange County (2.1%), and Hillsborough (1.5%), Duval (1.3%), Pinellas (-0.3%), Polk (1.1%), Brevard (1.5%), and Seminole (0.6%). Among counties with over 200,000 people employed, only Lee County had higher job growth (3%).
Download the 2024 Q3 Southeast Florida Residential Rental Report below.
[1] U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat | US | Cushman & Wakefield (cushmanwakefield.com)
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